MLB 2026 Sabermetrics Analysis

Pace projections · Pythagorean divergence · Japanese player spotlight

📅 As of 2026-09-05

162-Game Pace Projections

Batting — HR
PlayerTeamHRPace
Kyle Schwarber PHI 40 ▶46
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC 39 ▶44
Yordan Alvarez HOU 37 ▶42
Junior Caminero TB 37 ▶43
Matt Olson ATL 37 ▶43
Batting — AVG
PlayerTeamAVG
Yordan Alvarez HOU 0.317
Luis Arraez PHI 0.316
Chandler Simpson TB 0.311
Nick Gonzales PIT 0.308
Yandy Díaz TB 0.306
Batting — RBI
PlayerTeamRBIPace
Sal Stewart CIN 106 ▶122
Alec Burleson STL 102 ▶116
Jordan Walker STL 100 ▶114
CJ Abrams WSH 94 ▶106
Pete Alonso BAL 94 ▶107
Batting — SB
PlayerTeamSBPace
Nasim Nuñez WSH 45 ▶51
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY 40 ▶46
Chandler Simpson TB 38 ▶44
Bobby Witt Jr. KC 38 ▶43
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC 33 ▶38
Pitching — ERA
PlayerTeamERA
Jacob Misiorowski MIL 1.97
Cam Schlittler NYY 2.04
Chris Sale ATL 2.10
Dylan Cease TOR 2.25
Parker Messick CLE 2.46
Pitching — W
PlayerTeamWPace
Sonny Gray BOS 16 ▶18
Cristopher Sánchez PHI 16 ▶18
Chase Burns CIN 15 ▶17
Foster Griffin CLE 15 ▶17
Braxton Ashcraft PIT 14 ▶16
Pitching — SO
PlayerTeamSOPace
Jacob Misiorowski MIL 227 ▶259
Dylan Cease TOR 221 ▶252
Gavin Williams CLE 217 ▶248
Cam Schlittler NYY 210 ▶241
Jesús Luzardo PHI 209 ▶240
Pitching — SV
PlayerTeamSVPace
Bryan Baker TB 39 ▶45
Riley O'Brien STL 36 ▶41
Cade Smith CLE 35 ▶40
Aroldis Chapman BOS 32 ▶37
Mason Miller SD 32 ▶37

Pace = current value ÷ games played × 162. AVG and ERA are not projected. See glossary for more.

Japanese Players in MLB Rankings

Run Differential Top 5 vs. Pythagorean Win%

MIL
+174 Pyth .625
LAD
+149 Pyth .609
CHC
+138 Pyth .591
ATL
+121 Pyth .592
NYY
+114 Pyth .589

Pythagorean Win% = RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83). Full divergence table: Pythagorean analysis →