Baseballab EN › MLB › Trends

MLB Team Trend Analysis

Last 3 games hot/cold + Pythagorean Win% divergence

📅 As of 2026-07-15

Last 3 Games: Hot / Cold Teams

Teams that won all three recent games are "hot"; teams that lost all three are "cold." Short-term momentum can signal which clubs are peaking heading into their next series.

🔥 Hot (3-0 last 3)
CWS Chicago White Sox 3-0 8.0 R/G
CLE Cleveland Guardians 3-0 4.0 R/G
BAL Baltimore Orioles 3-0 6.3 R/G
BOS Boston Red Sox 3-0 4.3 R/G
NYY New York Yankees 3-0 4.7 R/G
PIT Pittsburgh Pirates 3-0 8.0 R/G
AZ Arizona Diamondbacks 3-0 7.7 R/G
🥶 Cold (0-3 last 3)
KC Kansas City Royals 0-3 6.3 RA/G
ATH Athletics 0-3 8.0 RA/G
MIL Milwaukee Brewers 0-3 8.0 RA/G
MIA Miami Marlins 0-3 4.0 RA/G
NYM New York Mets 0-3 4.3 RA/G
WSH Washington Nationals 0-3 4.7 RA/G
LAD Los Angeles Dodgers 0-3 7.7 RA/G

Pythagorean Win% Divergence

Pythagorean Win% estimates expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed: RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83) (Pythagenport formula, used by Baseball Reference). A large positive gap means the team wins more than their run differential suggests — often bullpen strength, clutch hitting, or luck. Historically, such gaps tend to close over the course of a season.

▲ Outperforming Pythagorean (Lucky?) TOP 7

TeamW-LActualPythDelta
PHI 54-43 .557 .489 +.067
TB 56-38 .596 .536 +.060
SD 48-48 .500 .451 +.049
CLE 51-46 .526 .498 +.028
ATH 41-55 .427 .399 +.028
TEX 49-47 .510 .483 +.027
HOU 47-51 .480 .455 +.025

▼ Underperforming Pythagorean (Unlucky?) TOP 7

TeamW-LActualPythDelta
DET 44-52 .458 .528 .070
LAA 38-59 .392 .445 .053
BOS 46-48 .489 .533 .044
NYY 54-42 .563 .599 .036
LAD 61-36 .629 .654 .025
PIT 50-47 .515 .541 .025
SEA 48-49 .495 .519 .024
Key insight: Teams with large positive deltas tend to win close games at an unsustainable rate — watch for regression. Teams with large negative deltas (like LAD at -0.076 this season) are stronger than their record shows and likely to improve. This metric is a guide, not a guarantee — elite bullpens genuinely outperform Pythagorean expectations over time.
Learn more: Stats glossary →