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MLB Team Trend Analysis

Last 3 games hot/cold + Pythagorean Win% divergence

📅 As of 2026-09-05

Last 3 Games: Hot / Cold Teams

Teams that won all three recent games are "hot"; teams that lost all three are "cold." Short-term momentum can signal which clubs are peaking heading into their next series.

🔥 Hot (3-0 last 3)
TOR Toronto Blue Jays 3-0 8.7 R/G
ATH Athletics 3-0 7.7 R/G
HOU Houston Astros 3-0 3.7 R/G
🥶 Cold (0-3 last 3)
BAL Baltimore Orioles 0-3 4.3 RA/G
LAA Los Angeles Angels 0-3 4.7 RA/G

Pythagorean Win% Divergence

Pythagorean Win% estimates expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed: RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83) (Pythagenport formula, used by Baseball Reference). A large positive gap means the team wins more than their run differential suggests — often bullpen strength, clutch hitting, or luck. Historically, such gaps tend to close over the course of a season.

▲ Outperforming Pythagorean (Lucky?) TOP 7

TeamW-LActualPythDelta
TB 84-57 .596 .534 +.061
CIN 67-74 .475 .421 +.054
HOU 73-69 .514 .475 +.039
PHI 79-62 .560 .524 +.036
TOR 71-71 .500 .474 +.026
TEX 70-72 .493 .468 +.025
AZ 74-68 .521 .498 +.023

▼ Underperforming Pythagorean (Unlucky?) TOP 7

TeamW-LActualPythDelta
DET 64-77 .454 .534 .081
LAA 53-88 .376 .440 .064
WSH 67-76 .469 .507 .039
SF 58-84 .408 .444 .036
COL 54-87 .383 .412 .029
CHC 80-62 .563 .591 .027
PIT 70-72 .493 .520 .027
Key insight: Teams with large positive deltas tend to win close games at an unsustainable rate — watch for regression. Teams with large negative deltas (like LAD at -0.076 this season) are stronger than their record shows and likely to improve. This metric is a guide, not a guarantee — elite bullpens genuinely outperform Pythagorean expectations over time.
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